How Good is Phil Hellmuth? Charlie Carrel Evaluates Phil's Skill

17 WSOP bracelets, over 180 cashes at the WSOP, and an inductee into the Poker Hall of Fame.

Phil Hellmuth has it all, but how good is he really? I’ve got a feeling that people at home will find the truth utterly disturbing, and we’re going to look into it today.

Hand #1: Hustler Casino Live vs Stanley Choi

$100/$200 No Limit Hold'em

Preflop:

Phil Hellmuth raises to $800 with
Alan Keating calls with and Chamath calls with
Stanley Choi 3-bets to $5,200 with
Hellmuth calls, Keating calls, and Chamath calls

Charlie Carrel: Oh my god, this is so Hellmuthian, seeing the flat call. I honestly thought this was just going to be all-in preflop. Seeing the flat call from Hellmuth is so classic.
This hand: , already terrible play. Phil, what are you doing? But it’s such a Phil thing, and we’ll get into what that means later. Could be 4-betting, getting the other people out...

Flop – :

Stanley Choi bets $5,000 into $20,800
Everyone folds except Hellmuth, who calls

Yeah, Phil’s already very lucky that nobody else had straight draws or an eight on this flop, because this is one of the problems with slowplaying. You go four-way, you have to not get out-flopped, then you have to also not get out-turned, because you often can’t fast-play the flop.

Turn - :

Stanley checks, and Hellmuth checks behind

Actually, not a bad play. If you’re Phil, you’re kind of putting your opponent on Ace-King when he checks the turn, or some kind of miss, and you’re giving him a chance to bluff. There’s only really one bad river card, and that’s the ace. So I actually really don’t mind this check on the turn for Phil.

River - :

Stanley leads for $21,000
Phil Hellmuth says, “I have a bad feeling you have me, but I have an overpair," and calls

Theoretically, this is trash. Preflop, awful. River, awful. Turn, exploitatively fine. Still probably should bet. But exploitively, I 100% get it. Don’t mind it at all.
You know what I’m curious about? Would Hellmuth have gone broke if Stanley had shoved the river? It would be the sickest of sickest hero folds. And actually, I feel like if there’s one human being on Earth that could manage to do that, that would be able to fold there, I feel like it could be Hellmuth.

Rating: 6.5/10

Hand #2: High Stakes Poker vs Doug Polk

$100/$200 No Limit Hold'em

Preflop:

Phil Hellmuth raises to $1,100 with
Doug Polk calls with and Bord calls with

Charlie Carrel: Good raise, good call, good call, pretty much no matter what the positions are, unless he’s in a super early position.

Flop – :

Doug and Phil check, so Bord bets $2,000 into $3,900
Doug Polk raises to $7,000
Bord folds, Phil goes all-in for $97,200
Pot is now $110,100 and Doug has $193,000 in his stack

So Phil Hellmuth now checks the flop. Doug Polk obviously checks to the aggressor. That’s a normal thing. You don’t want to be leading this spot ever, probably, at least theoretically, and Doug’s a very theoretical player.
Hellmuth checks the flop. Definitely not the worst check in the world. I probably wouldn’t, just because if it goes check-check, you lose so much value from Doug, who also hits this board reasonably hard. But if Bord is the kind of person to just bet blindly when checked to, this is a fantastic check. So I can’t have any criticism there. So far, so good.
– On Doug's $7,000 raise: Theoretically, this is fine. Exploitatively, Doug, I think this is actually pretty bad. I feel like you want to go a size where Phil’s definitely still going to be calling his , , things like that.
– On Phil Hellmuth's all-in raise: Phil Hellmuth came up in the ’80s and ’90s. I don’t know exactly when he first started playing, but a long time ago. Grandpa Phil, as we call him. He spent a lot of time playing against people who were not aware of pot sizes.
Let’s assume they’re playing 100/200. This is 500 big blinds. Five. Hundred. Big blinds. Even if it’s 150/300, it’s still over 300 big blinds. I can’t express just how insanely deep this is.
Now he has a hand that’s relatively vulnerable on a board that is extremely wet. And if he’s playing against people from the ’90s, when they flop here, when they flop , even when they flop , when they flop , they don’t notice that it’s 500 big blinds. They’re just like, “Well, I’ve got a hand, I’ve got to call.” And then you just have to hope they don’t shoot you on the way out as you scurry out of a Texas basement. Apparently, that’s how poker genuinely used to be.
So this play actually made a lot of sense two decades ago. It does not make any sense when you’re playing against a theoretical player like Douglas J. Polk.

Doug Polk folds, Hellmuth doesn't show

Theoretically, in my opinion, this is one of the easiest ratings. I’m going to rate this hand from Phil a 3.5 out of 10. And I would rate it lower, but the thing is, this would have worked when he was coming up in the poker world. So the thought process isn’t completely bananas. It was just the wrong application against the wrong person.
He doesn’t understand exactly how big that shove is theoretically, because he hasn’t played millions of hands of online poker and hasn’t studied online poker in the same way Doug has, and the same way so many high-stakes crushers have. He just doesn’t realize how theoretically wild it is to do anything like that.
And as Doug very correctly says, both he and the other guy can have queen-ten here. So shoving with anything less than queen-ten would be insane. Maybe ace-ten of spades would be reasonable, but apart from that, nothing.

Rating: 3.5/10

Hand #3: 2023 WSOP Main Event vs Paulo Joanello

200/400 + 400 Big Blind Ante – No Limit Hold'em

Preflop:

Paulo Joanello raises to 1,000 with
Distefano 3-bets to 2,600 with
Phil Hellmuth calls with
Joanello 4-bets to 8,000
Distefano folds, Hellmuth calls

Charlie Carrel: Somebody raises to 2x. Phil Hellmuth is sitting on around 60 big blinds, maybe 65 big blinds, something like that, and has cold-called a small three-bet in position from an obviously very loose player. Probably absolutely fine.
Theoretically, you’re not meant to do this stuff, but you’re not going to get four-bet very often in the WSOP Main Event. I could do a whole two-hour lecture on how to play the WSOP Main. I finished around 80th or 88th once, I think. I didn’t play it that many times, but the way you’re meant to play big-field tournaments is so different from absolutely everything else.
And I think Phil’s style really does suit it. You’re really not going to get four-bet very often. Even if he has , he’s not going to four-bet. He might not even four-bet .
Probably okay to call the 4-bet here. Probably okay in position.

Flop – :

Joanello bets 8,000 into 19,600
Hellmuth raises to 20,000

Commentator: "I think you might assume that Hellmuth has a lot of nines, tens, and jacks."
Charlie Carrel: The commentator is absolutely right here. You always have to be thinking, what is my opponent’s range, and what am I going to do about it?
And also, once you’re at a certain level, which honestly isn’t even that high, you also have to think about what your opponent thinks your range is. And Phil Hellmuth’s range here looks like ace-king, ace-queen suited, nines, tens, jacks. Those hands specifically.
So now you have to be thinking, okay, I’ve got a set. What do I need to do? It looks like you want to raise for protection. At the same time, if your opponent is any good, the board isn’t that wet. It’s not that coordinated, because all of your cards and all of your opponent’s cards are supposed to be big cards.
Maybe nines are in there, which would interact with a nine or an eight, but other than that, he’s just going to have a lot of and suited. He’s going to have pocket tens. So is nowhere near as coordinated as something like 9-8-7, for example.
Ergo, you don’t necessarily need to raise, although I’d probably make it something like 17,000. People just play so weird against Phil Hellmuth.

Turn – :

Joanello checks
Hellmuth bets 15,000 into 59,600

To the untrained eye, this turn looks really scary. But the is kind of a brick. Joanello is almost never going to have an . Hellmuth should pretty much never have an . If anything, it makes pocket nines less likely. It’s not that scary of a card.
Yeah, Phil really going for a similar line to what I thought at first. The stack sizes really lend themselves to this kind of play. If you’re Janello here, you’re just sick. You’re like, “Does he have eights? Don’t think he raises the flop. Does he have nines? Don’t think he raises the flop. He might just be bluffing. He might just have tens or jacks. Probably have to call one more.”

River – :

Joanello checks
Phil Hellmuth bets 18,600 into 89,600 (leaving 5,700 behind)
Joanello calls

And then when Phil shoves the river, you’re like, “Oh, don’t even.” Now it’s like, he’s obviously not shoving tens or jacks. And now it’s either a random spaz bluff or it’s nothing. Sorry, random spaz bluff or it’s a straight or better for sure. Now he beats all the straights.
So Phil doing this thing where he leaves 5,700 behind is something I used to do a lot. Even in online poker, the solver hates this kind of stuff because it’s like, well, if you have value, you want to go for it all, and if you’re bluffing, you want maximum fold equity. It always just goes all-in here. That’s the only size.
That being said, you’re playing against a human being. And Phil Hellmuth has made a living playing against human beings extremely well. His intuition says that leaving some behind in this situation looks like he could be bluffing more often than if he just jams. The idea is maybe his opponent thinks, “Oh, Phil might be bluffing, but he’s leaving himself a little bit to spin it up in the Main. He doesn’t want to go broke,” something like that.
I used to do this stuff all the time. Personally, I love it.
Joanello calls and Phil Hellmuth gets the maximum.

Rating: 10/10

Hand #4: Hustler Casino Live vs Barry

$25/$50 + $50 Big Blind Ante – No Limit Hold'em

Preflop:

Ben raises to $850 with
Mikki calls with
Phil calls with
Barry calls with

Charlie Carrel: Yeah, this $850. Big size, but I like it on this table. Mikki making a terrible play, as always.

Flop - :

Phil bets $1,200
Ben and Barry both call, and the pot is now $8.050
Mikki thinks and folds

Mikki’s actually in kind of a tough spot here. Don’t know if he meant to shove. Don’t know if he meant to fold. It’s close either way. He’s going to take a long time to think about it.

Turn – :

Ben checks
Hellmuth bets $3,200
Barry goes all-in for $11,225, covering Phil, who has $3,325 left
Phil tanks, and calls

Ah, Mikki would have made it. Oh, that makes me so happy. That genuinely makes me so happy. I’m not going to justify why I have a strong disliking for Mikki. If you don’t know who he is, you’re not missing much. If you do, you’ll probably understand where I’m coming from.
Phil then bets $3,200 on the turn. I think this is also a very good play. Like, I actually think this is really good. You have to charge Ben.
I might go a little bit smaller, maybe like $2,500, just to get value from stuff like , , and then give Ben a chance to go crazy with , , or even call with those hands. And then you get to cooler him on a , and you just have him in a really bad spot. He might still be able to get a value bet on the river if it bricks, but anyway, 3,200, I think it’s the same thought process.
The fact that he bets and then gets shoved on is so weird. It’s like, have I really run into a set here? Would you have played a set like this? Maybe. Probably. Maybe you could have just called the flop. Maybe you could now shove the turn with a straight. It’s really hard to have . Might not even have caught the flop. Whatever else. You probably just have to call off.

River - :

There’s no way he folds, right?
Barry needs to be bluffing here, like, 10% of the time. Because you still have equity when he’s value-shoving. He might even have something like , for example, which you actually have decent equity against. And if he’s bluffing even a tiny percentage of the time, or if he’s just going for it with something like , you just have to put it in.
Okay, we’ll give it a nine out of ten. The fact that he tank-called the river is fair enough. If you’re not a math dude, you’re not a math dude. You can’t really criticize that. He came to the right conclusion, eventually.

Rating: 9/10

Hand #5: Hustler Casino Live vs Ben

$25/$50/$100 + $50 Big Blind Ante – No Limit Hold'em

Preflop:

Phil raises to $1,150 with
Barry calls with
Ben 3-bets to $6,800 with

Charlie Carrel: So, all right, we’re Phil. We’re raising 11 big blinds with ace-king. Is the straddle on? Straddle’s on. So he’s raising, he’s raising five and a half big blinds. Again, huge raise, but on this table, completely fine, especially with Ben in the straddle.
Now, if Phil does anything but shove here, I have to demote him.

Phil folds quickly
Barry folds as well

Wow. What?
Phil... Oh my goodness. I thought I must have been misunderstanding that. What the hell is that? I’m trying to justify this. I guess he had a read. That’s insane, bro. That’s absolutely bananas. Insane. He’s gone a size which rarely goes as well.

He was like, “You should have seen what I folded,” and they were trying to guess like or something.
Phil, no need. I’ll brag for you. That was wild.

Rating: Unrated

Hand #6: The Big Game vs Harlow

Preflop:

Phil raises to $2,000 with
Harlow raises to $7,200 with
Phil calls, and the pot is $15,600

Charlie Carrel: The last hand we have, Phil opens to $2,000 against the loose cannon. If you don’t know what that is, you have to go watch it. Essentially, somebody is satellited in for free. Phil calls, and the loose cannon has to play kind of wild near the end of the series.
So, he three-bets , and Phil has to call because the loose cannon has to play relatively wild.

Flop – :

Phil checks
Harlow checks behind

Russ has the best hand, but Phil does have the better draws and a decent shot of hitting one. And Phil is calling out of position here, by the way, aware of his outs.

Turn – :

Phil bets $5,500
Harlow goes all-in for $49,200
Tony G calls the floor, clock is called
Phil folds

Interesting situation when he doesn’t c-bet the flop. What you’re expecting to see is a lot of and . So, as Phil, with with the , you probably have to be bluffing here to make sure he’s going to fold and with no club. And if he calls or with a club, okay, you’re going to lose a little bit more by checking the river, but you also get to stack him if a club comes.
That’s what I want to be seeing. I’d go something like $5,200.
So that’s why he doesn’t just snap fold, because he’s like, “Is the cannon just doing this with absolutely nothing? Could he be doing this with with a club?” Probably not. They probably would have three-bet the flop. So you just have to fold this.
But what I love about Phil, again, he’s trying to get reads. Most people aren’t doing this. He’s trying to get a read. Maybe he sees something that makes him absolutely certain that the loose cannon is bluffing. You see him really leaning in. That’s a good sign of somebody who’s looking for the right tells, somebody that leans in to get a better viewpoint.

Rating: Charlie forgot to rate this one.

Final Ruling on Phil Hellmuth – How Good is He?

All right, let’s finish it there. It’s been a long video, and I think I have everything I need to make a decision.

So, Phil Hellmuth, he really is thinking in a way that most people aren’t. He’s thinking about poker in a way that you’re not, in a way that I’m not. His success speaks for itself.

When it comes to big-field tournaments, not going broke in certain situations, not losing his entire stack when other people would 99.9 percent of the time, making these sick reads, making these really thin small value bets, it’s fantastic. Truly artistic. And it’s something that I don’t think any of us can ever fully understand, along with the power of manifestation and believing in himself. You can tell by the way he speaks about himself. He believes in himself more than any of us believe in ourselves, more than Jesus Christ himself believed in himself. He believes in himself more than God believes in his own son. He is at another level of self-belief.

Whether justified or not doesn’t matter. He is manifesting success to a certain degree, whether you believe it’s metaphysical or psychological.

However, theoretically, there are just some things that are absolutely inexcusable. This stuff was fine 20 years ago or 15 years ago, when nobody knew the theory. Online poker wasn’t really a thing. People weren’t really making good theoretical plays. And the people that were, they were still figuring stuff out and getting many things wrong.

Now, when he’s playing against the best players in the world, if he’s playing online, I don’t think he would do very well at all. In fact, I know he wouldn’t. If he’s playing high-stakes live, the $100Ks in the Bahamas or EPTs or whatever it is, he’s just going to get absolutely annihilated by players who aren’t making the very obvious mistakes he’s trying to exploit.

That being said, I would take him in the WSOP Main Event before I would take Stephen Chidwick or somebody along those lines because I really think he has this kind of magic that puts him above everybody else when it comes to these types of phenomena.

This is where I finally rate him. For every single episode after, there has to be some fairy dust next to his name. He’s just thinking about poker in a different way, and at the same time, he’s from a different generation. Just like with chess, where it’s unfair to rate Magnus Carlsen against Bobby Fischer or people like Mikhail Tal. Magnus Carlsen learned from all of the people before him.

The people of today learned from Barry Greenstein. They learned from Doyle Brunson. They learned from the people who built poker into what it is now.

And, they learned from Phil Hellmuth, even if perhaps they should be learning a little bit more than they currently have.