Daniil Dubov shared his thoughts about the 100-game challenge in an interview on the Chess with Mustreader channel.
— Hi, Daniil! So you've agreed to play this 100-game bullet match against Josh Smith. He is an amateur. You are one of the best in the world, especially in speed chess. Why do you think he has a chance to score any points against you if he's rated just in the vicinity of 2,500 on Chess.com at his peak?
— Hi! Well, mostly because it takes a lot of talent to lose 100 games in a row. Jokes aside, I'm clearly a better player, but with this kind of volume, I think even over the board he would have very, very decent chances. I checked his profile, and he's clearly a decent candidate master.
That was my first impression, which I think is already a good enough level not to lose 100 bullet games in a row, especially when you play bullet a lot. I'm pretty sure he has played way more bullet games online than I have. Secondly, online chess has its drawbacks: connection issues, missclicks. It will all play a role.
So altogether, those chances are slim, but he only needs a draw or a win. I think he's a massive favorite not to lose 100 in a row. We'll see. If I had to bet, I think it's like 10 to 1, maybe. It really takes a lot to lose 100 games in a row against me, believe me.
– We all know those streaks of, for example, Hikaru Nakamura, who sometimes defeats opponents 40 times in a row with a rating much higher than Josh's. Maybe you are too pessimistic about your chances?
— It's not that Hikaru goes and plays someone and wins 50 games in a row. It's like he plays 50,000 games and then there will be a streak where he wins 40 in a row. That's a completely different story. If we played exactly 200 matches like that, maybe once I would manage to get this 100-0. But it's not as if Hikaru does it all the time. He's also very good. I don't think it's a strong enough argument, to be honest.
— What does Josh need to do to score those points, except external factors like the missclicks you mentioned? What does a player have to do to defeat Daniil Dubov?
— I think you generally just need not to choke, and you need to wait for your chance. I will certainly blunder a few times, maybe more. Then, you just need to be ready to pick up the trick and bring it home comfortably. This is the thing. Psychologically, it's a weird spot. I thought about it too. I've never been in such a spot where you go there, you're going to play 100 games, and your goal is to win one.
So you need to be psychologically prepared to lose 30 in a row. You need not to tilt. You need to know that this is all part of the plan. You're going to lose many, but you shouldn't drop your level of play. Even if you don't see the results, you feel like you're playing well. Given your standards, you're playing well, and you're losing 30 games in a row — you should still maintain that level. It sounds funny, but you should still maintain that level, because there is always room for playing worse, believe me.
I think he has to be consistent with his play. I think if he plays 100 games at his normal level, I think he's supposed to score like four to five points, maybe more even, I don't know. But generally, he should just not tilt, not start 1.g4, crash out, whatever. But Josh seems to be a very calm and self-confident guy.
Kudos to him for that. It takes a lot of courage. You really need some confidence to actually play the match on these terms. It might look weird to him. You're playing a guy, and you might end up losing 100 to 0, but you are supposedly not even sure that you're not going to lose 100 to 0.
I think he has the guts and the mental strength to do it. I'm pretty sure he will manage. We are discussing it like there is a real chance of him losing 100 games in a row. Maybe if I win like 20 in a row, I'll start believing it, but not yet, to be honest.
— Do you think Magnus or maybe some bullet specialists like Nihal Sarin would have a decent chance of scoring those 100 wins?
— I think it really depends on how much the online part plays a role. I'm pretty sure if we play over the board, even I am good enough to have a real shot at a 100-game streak. If we play 90 seconds per game, then I think the chance would be real. I'm not sure I would do it, but it's real.
With Nihal, I don't know. These guys have mastered their online skills pretty much to the same level as their over-the-board skills. If you do not factor that in at all, yeah, maybe you have a shot. I'll still be surprised, to be honest. But Sarin is a super specialist — he's crazy enough to go to a different place to play Firouzja online. You know the story, right? They played this bullet final, and Sarin literally went somewhere closer to Chess.com servers to be a little bit faster with seconds left.
We are literally talking about 0.1, 0.2 seconds per game. And this was actually a match decider, apparently, or at least a very, very important factor. So if he is that level of professional, I guess he would manage. I don't know.
Read Read— But that's esports. I think we should get used to it. More and more players will start doing that similarly to Nihal.
— Yeah, I guess. It's a different generation of players, and they have different standards. They also have different skills that they have improved and developed since a very, very early age. I'm pretty sure when Nihal was eight, he had probably played way more bullet games than I have throughout my life. So I have never been serious about it. Come on — this guy travels somewhere different just to play bullet chess. Give me a break.
But it all depends on the generation. I remember there were elite Blitz players, for instance, who were not taking it seriously. They would basically play some stupid openings that they thought did not matter at all. And then those who would actually prepare some tricky lines for Blitz. They had a very, very significant advantage. This whole thing is a generational thing.
In that sense, I'd certainly pick Nihal over me to win 100 games in a row in Bullet Chess against anybody, to be honest. Actually, Nihal managed to beat Ali. He beat Firouzja, what, like 15 in a row? Yes, 15. Something like that. That kind of gives me hope. Actually, now I start to think differently. But yeah, I don't know. Tilt, probably.
If you're in my shoes, believe me, it's sort of weird to go and say out loud that you expect to beat someone 100 to 0. Even if you think so (I don't), it's still a very, very weird statement. "Yeah, I'll go and beat the guy 100 times in a row." It’s a very nice guy who is actually paying for that. Come on. But yeah, I honestly don't think my chances are too impressive.
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