The 2026 Main Event is down to its final table of nine players, and people are lining up to bet on who takes it down. A few players are rated well above their stack, others are where they probably should be, and a some are being written off by the crowd.
As of August 3rd, here’s the volume, chance to win, and the Yes/No balance for each of the final nine.
| Player | Chip Count + % | Chance on Polymarket | Buy Yes | Buy No | Volume on Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Jumalon | 194,000,000 35.1% | 36% | 36¢ | 65¢ | $70,659 |
| Rami Hammoud | 79,000,000 14.3% | 15% | 15¢ | 86¢ | $349 |
| Jamie Shaevel | 56,000,000 10.1% | 10% | 11¢ | 91¢ | $2,154 |
| Greg Mueller | 48,500,000 8.8% | 12% | 12¢ | 89¢ | $7,621 |
| Michael Gagliano | 46,500,000 8.4% | 14% | 14¢ | 87¢ | $9,502 |
| Mario Boos | 44,000,000 8.0% | 9% | 9¢ | 92¢ | $4,210 |
| Lauri Saaskilahti | 37,500,000 6.8% | 5% | 4.6¢ | 95.5¢ | $3,456 |
| Han Feng | 25,000,000 4.5% | 6% | 6¢ | 95¢ | $9,486 |
| Evagoras Evagorou | 22,500,000 4.1% | 3% | 3.1¢ | 97.0¢ | $2,707 |
Lucas Jumalon: 36% Chance on Polymarket
Nobody is surprised to see Lucas taking the biggest share of the odds.
Jumalon holds 35.1% of the chips and is priced at 36%. The betting number is sitting almost exactly on his chip share.
He has $70,659 riding on him, more than the other eight players combined.
What the 36% means is that Lucas isn’t getting much of a premium for skill. At 22, with around $180,000 in career earnings and a career-high cash of just $22,945, Jumalon is a relative newcomer. He came into Day 2 with under 10 BB, and now he’s sitting with the chip lead.
The market respects that mountain of chips. However, it isn't betting that Lucas will out-play the table on top of it. He’s arguably a little bit undervalued.
Read ReadRami Hammoud: 15% Chance on Polymarket
A reasonable price, but with less trading volume than anyone else.
Rami Hammoud is 2nd in chips (14.3%) and priced 2nd (15%). Reasonable pricing compared to his chip stack, but with only $349 bet on him. It’s quite strange to see, especially since Rami has real experience.
Over $500,000 in recorded live earnings, but almost nobody on Polymarket is willing to get behind him.
This is Hammoud's first Main Event, and while his record is solid, he doesn't carry a big public name. But he’s run deep in events with 20,000 players, and he’s easily more experienced than Lucas.
Why so little money is riding on him, we honestly can't fully explain.
Michael Gagliano: 14% Chance on Polymarket
In this player’s case, the crowd is breaking from the chip counts.
Gagliano is only 5th in chips (8.4%) but priced 3rd (14%). He holds the biggest leap above a chip share of anyone at the table, and a real one, even after you allow for the padding.
The reason is his poker resume, and it's quite impressive. Four WSOP bracelets, PokerStars SCOOP and WCOOP titles, more than $2.3 million in live earnings, and a coaching business he’s run since 2010. He's the most active online poker player of the bunch, but also holds one of the best live records among his peers.
There’s $9,502 bet on him as of August 3rd, and that’s one of the largest figures on the board.
Apparently, the market believes that this pro can squeeze far more out of a middling stack than the amateurs around him.
Greg Mueller: 12% Chance on Polymarket
Like Michael, with a solid poker resume and a price above his chip stack.
Mueller is 4th in chips (8.8%) and priced 4th (12%). His price is over his stack, and that’s because Greg has the deepest career at the table.
Three bracelets, roughly $3.5 million in earnings, and all starting from a career as a pro hockey defenceman. He even became a two-time-bracelet-winner inside a single 11-day stretch back in 2009.
Here, we see the same logic as Michael Gagliano. The crowd is paying for the operator, above their chips. This indicates they believe he can outperform other players chip-for-chip.
Jamie Shaevel: 10% Chance on Polymarket
A decent stack, but not one the market wants to reward.
Shaevel is the flip side of Gagliano. He's 3rd in chips (10.1%) but priced 5th (10%) on Polymarket.
It couldn’t be any more lined up to his chip stack. He’s even rated below two men holding fewer chips than he is, and he’s had the second-lowest volume put behind his name ($2,154).
Shaevel is a cash-game specialist who essentially only plays the Main Event each year. Around $451,000 in career cashes is great for a cash game player, but not spectacular for a tournament grinder.
So the market respects the chips, but their faith stops abruptly there.
Mario Boos: 9% Chance on Polymarket
Mario is one of the players who hasn’t deviated the odds far from his chip stack.
Boos is 6th in chips (8.0%) and priced 6th (9%), one of the tidiest cases on the board.
He has an amateur profile, a middling stack, and the crowd clearly isn’t getting behind his chances of being the 2026 Main Event winner. Mario has $239,888 in lifetime earnings, which isn’t shabby, but this is poker’s biggest stage.
Put simply, none of his attributes are moving the price beyond the value of his chips. At the moment, he’s got $4,210 in volume behind him on Polymarket.
Han Feng: 6% Chance on Polymarket
Han is getting a bit of a pro premium, despite his short stack.
Feng is 8th in chips (4.5%) but priced in 7th (6%). He’s been marked up, despite a short stack. There’s $9,486 behind him, far more than a player with this amount of chips would usually draw.
It’s the same pattern as Gagliano and Mueller. The reason for the markup is a Global Poker Index award, 160-plus recorded cashes, around $2 million in earnings, and repeat deep Main Event runs in 2023 and 2024.
He has only been cashing in WSOP events since 2022, but his solid performance this year backs up his Polymarket odds. He never really went below the halfway mark and has hovered high up on the chip counts for most days.
The market is paying for the operator again, betting Feng is the short stack most likely to spin it back up. It's an uphill climb, but the crowd seems to like his odds.
Lauri Sääskilahti: 5% Chance on Polymarket
Lauri is giving the amateur discount for a good reason.
Sääskilahti is 7th in chips (6.8%) but priced 8th (5%). He’s marked down below his stack and slotted under the shorter-stacked Feng.
The market has good reasons for that. This Main Event is his first WSOP cash ever, and his run leaned on some fortune. An ace from space kept him alive on Day 7.
The crowd reads him as a recreational player likely to be outclassed, and prices him accordingly. It's the clearest example on the board of a number falling below a chip share purely on a perceived skill gap.
Evagoras Evagorou: 3% Chance on Polymarket
There’s not much to explain here. Evagoras is a long shot.
Evagorou is last in chips (4.1%) and last by chance at 3%. He is the least-credentialed player here, even behind Lauri.
This is Evagorou’s first Main Event, and he can only boast a handful of mostly small cashes back home in Cyprus.
He’s running a shade below his chip share, but that is not surprising. Players will likely find it difficult to get behind a player with this stack size, in this event, with this level of experience.
But he does have a chance to make history. No Cypriot has ever reached a Main Event final table, let alone won one.