Nikita favourable, who keeps a diary "Dementia and courage. nl5" shared with us his analysis of the hand from NL20, and Vladimir NeNaZavode commented on his game and analysis.
The showdown and the outcome of the hand can be found at the end of the article.
Player Analysis
Preflop. I would 3-bet this hand with some frequency, but apparently, Villain had a small raise from the button and a low fold rate to a 3-bet.
Flop. My opponent bet half the pot and I decided to check-raise. The opponent's sizing is important for me – I rarely attack big bets (more than ½ pot), more often small bets. I have a straight draw and a backdoor flush draw. I assume that the opponent here bets very often, and I will be able to eliminate , , pocket pairs from through . On the other hand, it worries me that my hand is dominated by , if a queen comes out, completing the straight. But there are only 16 of these combinations, and it seems to me that I realize the equity of my hand better on such a line.
Turn. I decide to bet the pot. I will have value hands like two pair ( ), the sizing is suitable for strong hands. I don't let gutshots call (maybe the solver calls with them, but Villain will most likely fold). Presumably knocking out all hands worse than , i.e. 50-60% fold equity, which is good.
It would be possible to overbet 120%, but I think this sizing is not bad either. for such a bet, I think the opponent will fold, and becomes a clean out now.
River. I won’t have a bluff here due to a bad runout. Of the unmade hands, the opponent had only a backdoor flush draw and . But in general, the opponent's range is shifted towards QQ+. Jacks became trips.
According to the chart, I could bluff here with the idea of knocking out , overpairs, and unmade hands.
Coach's comment
Vladimir NeNaZavode , GreenLine fund trainer
There is not much to add preflop – we want to 3-bet more often, but there are exceptions: a tighter opening range for the opponent, or a low fold rate to a 3-bet. In the second case, you want to 3-bet linearly, but then again, with odds, adding such hands to a 3-bet is never a mistake. This will allow you not to feel very defective on low-connected boards.
On the flop, it would be based on what set of sizings the opponent has in general. Does he use a third or 3/4? At the lower stakes, everyone is still very straightforward and gives out information about bet sizes. Let's say he bets a third with pocket pairs, perhaps with a weak top pair, or he adds some second pairs to this part of the range with additional equity. A half-pot bet will probably include a layer of medium hands that have 1.5-2 streets of value. In ¾ of the pot, he will bet, relatively speaking, the top of the range along with the best bluffs with high equity. All this should be taken into account.
Further, regarding our hand: you correctly noted that there are 16 combinations , which turns the hand into a cooler at one of the runouts. There are also 16 combinations (Ed. – 12, since 9c we have; thanks to our visitor dan1q for being attentive ), on a triple check-raise, they will all call. In general, we have to start by saying that the button has a lot of equity here, and we don't want to check-raise the BB a lot, especially with our hand. We often check-call on the flop. This hand plays well on a check-call line and bluffs many rivers when check-checked.
On the turn, sizing is generally ok (we're already hitting gutshots without a flush draw), but again, if we're out of position on the flop, be sure to check part of the draw on the turn as well. You need to understand that with some frequency we will see a check-behind, after which our hand is also realized/bluffing well.
River: the question is how much he opened and from the button and how many of them made it to the turn. In general, if you count on your fingers, a river shove will be zero at best.
In general, the hand played well, but you need to understand that this is a fairly low-frequency line with our hand, one of the common mistakes is to try to put in more money with a good draw on the flop/turn and then auto-fold on the river in a big pot out of position.
Hand result
Spoiler
