Bluffing Doesn't Live Here: When to Trust Your Opponent in a Live Game

Marc Goone of Hungry Horse Poker recorded a video analyzing sixteen hands: half of them illustrate non-bluffing spots, the other half, on the contrary, situations where bluffing is in fashion.

We decided to split the translation of this video into 2 articles. Here is the first part:

Some spots in live poker just aren't bluffed — almost ever. And some spots are bluffed entirely too much. If you don't know the difference, you're torching your win rate.

I've coached over 250 serious players, helping them go from winners to crushers, and even the top players were getting these spots wrong. Today, I'll show you the eight most under-bluffed spots and the eight most over-bluffed ones, so you can stop leaking chips in all the wrong places — and start printing where everyone else is lighting money on fire.

1. Flop Checkback & Turn Raise

We open in the cutoff with . We get three-bet by the button, and the flop comes . We check it over to the preflop raiser, and he checks back.

So what is their range in general when they check back on the flop as the preflop aggressor?

It's generally going to be hands with showdown value and some air. Showdown value includes hands like pocket tens, pocket nines, ace-king — and maybe some air, like ten-nine of spades. Basically, hands with nothing going on.

We go to the turn. The turn is a . We bet small here for value and protection. Their range is weak, and we’d love for them to call with a hand we’ve got in bad shape. But now, they raise.

Here’s why this spot is so under-bluffed: we already talked about how their range is mostly showdown value and air. The type of player who's going to be aggressive with air — who’s going to turn ten-nine of spades into a bluff — is usually going to start betting that hand on the flop.

So it’s probably not air, because aggressive players tend to play their air aggressively from the start.

And it’s probably not showdown value, because live players just don’t turn showdown hands into bluffs very often. If they had a hand like ace-king, pocket tens, or pocket nines, they’re not suddenly monkey-raising the turn. They checked back the flop to pot control.

So what is it?

When they check back the flop and raise the turn, it’s often a trap — something like pocket queens. That’s right. This is a hand that slow-played the flop, and now on the turn, the fear kicks in. They’re thinking about straight cards and flush cards, and they don’t want to get outdrawn. So they start putting money in the pot right away.

Remember, live players let fear and greed drive their decisions 99% of the time. Through the lens of fear, they check back the flop to trap, but now they’re done slow-playing and ready to extract value before something scary rolls off. This line — check back flop, raise turn — when they’re the preflop raiser, is massively under-bluffed.

2. Bet, Bet, & In Position Block Bet

I had to learn this lesson the hard way, many times over, before realizing how under-bluffed this spot is. It's when they bet the flop, bet the turn, and then use a small, block-style sizing on the river — in position, as the preflop raiser. So, this is a triple barrel with a small river size.

They open on the button. We defend in the big blind with , hoping to flop a sweet baby draw — but we don’t. We flop top pair. We check it over, and they go a little over half pot. We call.

Turn is the . We check again. They bet two-thirds. We've got second pair now. We think this card might be over-barreled, so we call one more time.

River is a , pairing the board. We check, and now they bet $70 in position — using a smaller sizing. I want to explain why this sizing, in position, is so different from when it comes out of position — and why it’s massively under-bluffed.

Let’s look at it through the lens of fear. Why might they not bluff here with hands like 6-7 or 7-8?

Well, when they’re in position, we have to turn our hand over first. They don’t have to reveal anything. No fear of embarrassment. If we show a better hand, they just muck. But when they’re out of position, it’s the opposite. If they bluff and we call, they have to show it. That embarrassment creates a psychological blocker. So out-of-position small sizing tends to be more bluff-heavy. In position, they don’t feel that pressure. They can bet thin, see what happens, and muck quietly if they get called. So, this in-position triple barrel for one-third pot is massively under-bluffed.

Let’s zoom in: what kind of hands is this typically?

It’s not going to be nutted hands. If they had pocket fives, pocket nines, pocket queens, or something like queen-nine suited, they’d go bigger. They’d try to get more value. So what does that leave? It’s going to be thin value-type hands — maybe pocket tens or pocket jacks, maybe the occasional overpair like queen-x. But generally, it’s not top-of-range.

So how do we exploit it?

Option A: we overfold.
Option B: we take some of our showdown value and turn it into a bluff. Calling is often going to be our least profitable line here, because they are under-bluffing.

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3. Ace High Board Triple Barrel

Lowjack opens. We defend in the big blind. Flop comes . We check. They c-bet. We call.

Turn is an innocuous . They double-barrel. We call again.

River is a . We check, and they fire a third barrel.

Now, these ace-high boards are under-bluffed for two key reasons — and the second one might surprise you.

It’s just harder to find intuitive bluffs here.
The lowjack is supposed to be turning hands like six-x into a bluff at a very high frequency. They’re also supposed to be triple-barreling a lot of bricked spade draws — hands like queen-ten of spades, queen-nine of spades, ten-nine of spades. But most players? They don’t find those bluffs. When players look at solvers, they often see those suited spade hands being given up on the river, so they do the same — even when they shouldn’t. From early position, the lowjack is not supposed to be value betting thinly here. Hands like ace-king and ace-queen are pure checkbacks on this river. The weakest hands the lowjack is supposed to bet for value are two pair — hands like A6, A8, and AJ.
So the second reason is because hands like ace-king, ace-queen, and ace-ten are supposed to be checked back on this river.
But in live poker, that just doesn't happen consistently. In most spots, I’d say live players aren’t betting thinly enough — but in this particular spot, they’re probably betting too thin and not finding the unintuitive bluffs, like six-x, king-seven of hearts, or king-five of diamonds.

What that means is they’re massively under-bluffing on these ace-high boards when they triple barrel.

4. Check-Call, Check-Call, Donk

We flop a set on . We c-bet, and they call. The turn is a . On this turn, they’re relatively capped but also inelastic.

What does that mean?

They’re capped because they would raise hands like pocket threes, king-four, or king-three suited on the flop. So the best hand they’re showing up with on this turn is usually king-x.
Those king-x hands and draws are inelastic — meaning they’re not going to fold even to a large size.

On these turns, where our opponent is capped but inelastic, I like to choose very big sizes — both with bluffs and strong hands. I go 1.5x pot. We get called:

The river is the . Our opponent now leads into us, donking for $250 into $400.

This line is under-bluffed, with one caveat I’ll talk about in a second.

When we’ve shown nothing but aggression — raised preflop, c-bet the flop, overbet the turn — and then the nuts change, and our opponent suddenly donks the river for a big size, this is almost never a bluff.

What are they bluffing with?

Five-six?
A hand that made weak showdown value?
Maybe king-queen or king-jack they randomly decided to turn into a bluff?

No. That just doesn’t happen. When we’ve been the one applying pressure and our opponent suddenly fights fire with fire, that line is under-bluffed.

Now, the caveat: sometimes they’ll use a small donk size on the river — something like 25 or 33 percent pot. When they do that, it’s a bit of a different range. That size is often looking to get a cheap showdown. It could be a hand like king-x. That line is still probably under-bluffed, but less so. But this one — where they choose a big size on the river — it’s going to be flushes. Flushes and more flushes. So don’t sweat it if you fold here and occasionally get shown a bluff. That’s a win for your long-term win rate.

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5. Multi-Way Donk Bet

We open in the cutoff, and the button, small blind, and big blind all call. Flop comes down , and the small blind donks out for $60.

This is very different from when players donk heads-up.

When they donk multi-way, it's usually a strong but vulnerable hand — maybe top pair, two pair, or occasionally a big combo draw like ace of spades-x or queen-ten of spades. Generally, it's a strong range — maybe not nutted, but strong. In these spots, we should be overfolding. When they donk multi-way — especially three, four, or five ways — into the preflop raiser, it's massively under-bluffed. So in a spot like this, I would just fold pocket tens.

A related spot is the three-bet pot donk. Let’s say we three-bet on the button. The cutoff opens, we three-bet, and the big blind cold calls. Now, on the flop, the big blind leads into us.

This is even stronger.

When they cold call a three-bet and then lead out, I expect them to have hands like jacks and queens very often. Strong but vulnerable hands. And I don’t expect those hands to fold on blank runouts.

If we have aces or kings here, we should probably just pile it in. But if we have pocket tens, what are we ahead of? Maybe nines or eights occasionally, but it’s much more likely they have jacks, queens, or even kings. So I’d just fold pocket tens in this multi-way, three-bet pot.

6. Turn Check-Raise After Aggression

et’s say we open aces. They call. We c-bet, and they call. Turn is a jack. We fire again, targeting king-x, five-six, etc. We go big, and they check-raise.

The last time a live poker player check-raised the turn as a bluff after we’ve shown nothing but aggression, George Washington Carver was president of the United States.

This line is just never a bluff. We can fold aces here without thinking twice. They have king-jack, sevens, fours — all day. This is just not a bluff.

7. River Check-Raise

Same thing applies if they check-raise the river instead. It’s going to be the nuts. Hands like five-six. Maybe even six-five. Maybe five-six suited, maybe five-six off.

If we raise preflop, c-bet the flop, overbet the turn, and bet the river — and they check-raise — they’re never bluffing. This line is under-bluffed.

Now this one is unintuitive. Took me a long time to figure out.

It’s when it checks all the way to the river, and then they stab.

That spot is under-bluffed too.

Let’s say we open ace-king. We get called in two spots. We’ve got some showdown value, so when it goes three ways, I’m not going to just fire into the field on this board. So it checks through. Turn comes, we still have ace-king high. Still decent showdown value. No reason to turn it into a bluff. It checks through again. River comes, and the big blind leads out for $35. And you would not believe how much money I’ve lost by flicking in the call here, thinking, "Small pot, small bet, I’ve got some showdown value, maybe this is a bluff."

But here’s the key: if they were going to bluff, they had the green light to do it on the turn. We checked as the preflop raiser. The button checked behind. If the big blind had a diamond draw or some straight draw, they had every opportunity to start bluffing then. The type of player who’s going to bluff in this line — they would have pulled the trigger on the turn. They’re not the type to check the turn and then suddenly fire the river with seven-five or a missed draw. That player just doesn't do that.

If the button had a bluff, they probably would’ve started it either on the flop or the turn once the preflop raiser checked to them. So in general, what I’ve seen in these multi-way pots — especially when it checks all the way to the river and someone stabs — is that we actually have way less showdown value than we think.

I would’ve saved so much money over the years just folding every single time I faced one of these river stabs after a multi-way check-down. These spots are massively under-bluffed.

8. Large C-Bet Sizing

We defend the big blind with pocket fives. Flop comes down, we check, and they go pot. And I used to make this mistake a lot — thinking, “Well, I’ve got an overpair to second pair, I’ve got a backdoor straight draw, I’ve got some good stuff going on…”

But when they choose this pot-sized c-bet on the flop, that range is going to be way too heavily weighted toward strong hands. I’m not saying they never have weak hands when they pot it — but they simply don’t have enough weak hands.

Think of it like rock-paper-scissors. If the button is just throwing rock 40% of the time, we counter that by throwing paper 100% of the time.

And in this case, paper is folding. Their range is too strong and not balanced when they go pot, so our best exploit is just to overfold — sometimes disrespectfully so. They just don’t have enough bluffs when they choose that size. Yes, sometimes their plan is to stab once and give up, but more often, that pot-sized flop bet is just too strong overall. And we counter that strength by overfolding right now, right here, on the flop.

(The next part of this article will include the 8 most over-bluffed spots – stay tuned for that!)

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